Why the next two games don't matter

OK, every game matters a little bit. Even in an 82-game NBA season. But this isn't a referendum.

There seems to be this buzz out there that tonight's game against the Lakers and Sunday's game at Boston will be this true test of whether the Wolves have truly improved. Are they better? Or has the gaudy January record been the result of the Wolves catching teams when they are missing players and the like.

There is certainly some of that. Milwaukee didn't have Redd or Bogut; the Clip joint didn't have Camby, Zach Randolph or Caveman Kaman and New Orleans didn't have Tyson Chandler or David West.

But to me, the next two games won't give us any indication of whether the Wolves have gotten any better. It doesn't matter how much the Wolves have improved of late, they simply don't have enough talent to really try to measure themselves against two of the top five teams in the Association.

It's possible that the Wolves could beat the Lakers at home. But Charlotte didn't do the Wolves any favors by beating the Lakers in double OT on Wednesday night. Kobe and Co. have only lost consecutive games twice this season. The first was losing at both Miami and Orlando. The second was earlier this month when the Lakers lost at San Antonio and at home against the Magic. Throw in the fact that a Wolves team without a center has to try to defend two 7-footers at the same time in Gasol and Bynum and this is a really tough matchup.

I truly think the Wolves have zero chance of beating the Celtics. While Boston isn't quite as dominant as it was early in the season, the Celtics have four players in Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Rondo who deserve to be All-Stars.  The Green and White enter tonight's game at Boston on a nine-game winning streak and the seven most recent of them have all been by double digits.

My point to all of this is that if there really is a referendum about whether the Wolves are improved, it comes next week. Because after this difficult weekend, there is a back-to-back on Tuesday and Wednesday, first at Indiana and then at home against Atlanta.

Those are the games in which I want to see improvement. If the Wolves do lose both games this weekend and travel to Indy with a three-game losing streak, I don't want to see it extend to five. I want to see the Wolves continue to play well, push the tempo a little bit and get lots of guys involved. 

The sprint to the All-Star break is a difficult one for the Wolves. Lakers, Celtics, Pacers, Hawks, Rockets, Hornets, Raptors. That's seven games against teams that are at least playoff contenders. 

I expect two losses this weekend, but would like to see the Wolves show some improvement before the break. 

Two things....

1. As I predicted below, at appears that Big Al won't be an All-Star and Shaq will be. That's what Yahoo is reporting here

2. There are also reports out there that Lakers big man Andrew Bynum will not be suspended for the hard foul on Charlotte's Gerald Wallace. That means he will be on the Target Center floor tomorrow night for the Lakers.

All-Star Game = No Howls

After the obvious one of whether the Wolves can keep this going, the biggest question around The 600 Project of late has been: Will Al Jefferson be an All-Star?

Well, we're about two hours from finding out that answer. My hunch is that the answer will be a resounding 'No.'

I truly hope that isn't the case. Big Al has been tremendous during the first half of the season and is certainly deserving of being an All-Star. He has 24 double-doubles on the season and 20 games of at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. He had that little 39-point night against the Bulls. And he has done it all while being the clear focal point of the Timberwolves offense. 

Imagine how much better he would be if he always got help from a couple of teammates, something that didn't happen until more recently.

Why don't I think Al will make it? Because of the Shaq factor. Shaquille O'Neal often takes of one half of back-to-backs, has more help and worse numbers than Big Al. But this, after all, is the NBA. With the game in Phoenix, the NBA is going to want O'Neal and his mega-watt smile in attendance. The league is going to want to create even more buzz. And maybe more importantly, the league isn't going to want any lingering chatter in Phoenix about how O'Neal deserves to play. 

And the best way to ensure that is to screw Big Al. 

I pretty much always thought that Big Al was going to have a tough time making the team -- and the team's GPS idea is totally lame as Portland did it a year ago to pump Brandon Roy -- but seeing what happened to Love makes me more certain Big Al will have the weekend off.

A case can be made against Big Al, especially when you factor in players from all positions. Being an All-Star in the NBA isn't easy. This isn't Major League Baseball or the NHL where you can be an All-Star just because you're the best player on a crap team.

But that Kevin Love isn't in the rookie-sophomore game is, in the words of McHale "utterly ridiculous." The UCLA rookie himself reportedly called the move "bullshit."

John Hollinger of espn.com clearly isn't pleased either. I am clearly not a super stat geek and know how to figure PUR and the like. But I do know this: The assistant coaches in the league should know better. 

How many times a game to assistant coaches bark at their players about rebounding? How often do they get on their own guys about the importance of boxing out? The number is too high to count.

So what do they do? They leave out the player who leads all rookies in rebounds per game and rebounds per 48 minutes. Love, without question, had a rough first six weeks or so this season. But he has totally come around of late. 

To me, the whole thing is a moving target. Consider:

If this is about sheer performance, then shouldn't 9.0 points and 8.4 rebounds and playing in every game be worth more than 9.0 points and 7.4 rebounds and missing six games? Those, by the way, are numbers comparing Love and Portland rookie Greg Oden.

If it is about contributing to a team's success, then why the hell does Memphis have two players on the team and Love not make it?

Who shouldn't have made it? I'm going to go with either Marc Gasol (11.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 30.4 mpg) or Eric Gordon (13.8 ppg, 32.2 mpg). Both are simply the products of being on teams that are so bad that they have to play rookies extended minutes.

Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think Big Al is going to have the weekend off. And if the Wolves aren't represented in Phoenix, it will be a shame.

Pistons 98, Wolves 89: Items to consider

Sorry for the late post on last nights game. A couple too many $6.50 Target Center adult beverages and an early morning = late post.

Because of that, we'll go with some quick hits here:

1. This game should be Exhibit A as to why the Wolves need to make an addition at point guard over the summer.

Why? With Bassy still dealing the bruised thigh he suffered Monday night at Milwaukee and getting in foul trouble from trying to guard Mr. Practice A.I., Randy Foye played point guard over the final 10:15. That, my friends, still isn't a good thing. It isn't a coincidence that Foye's numbers have gone up ever since he has been moved primarily to the 2.

Foye replaced Bassy with 10:15 to go in regulation and the game tied, 76-76. From that point, Foye missed both of his field goal attempts and scored one point. When was the last time he was that ineffective in the fourth quarter. Some of that credit goes to the Pistons, but it was a perfect example of why the Wolves need to do something at PG. 

I would like to see them draft a PG with their first pick or sign or trade for a starter and keep Bassy. I think Telfair really is better. While there are a couple of stupid turnovers or horrible shots a game, the does a lot of things well. He gets the game moving at a faster pace, he does a nice job penetrating and then pitching out to open shooters on the wing and he does a nice job feeding the post when the defense is off balance. In a perfect world, I'd like to see him split time next year with a new guy and at least play 15 minutes a night.

With Foye running the point, the Wolves looked sluggish and never really got into a flow. They only scored 17 points in the fourth quarter and only 13 after Foye moved to the point.

This truly was a winnable game for the Wolves, but it turned into an opportunity lost.

2. Did he really say that?

How about the quote after the game from Rasheed Wallace. "I think we needed it more than them," Wallace said. "They were pretty hot her in the month of January. I think we just wanted it a little more to get off of this damn slide we've been on."

Did you ever think that the Pistons would say that after a game with the Wolves? I could see 'Sheed saying that after beating, say, the Celtics or Cavs, but the Wolves? I guess it shows how far Minnesota has come in the past six weeks.

3. 'Sheed really can play

It's easy to simply call him a thug or a whiner, but Wallace really can still play. And he's a smart cat. How he attacked the Wolves on the offensive end was a perfect example of that. When Rhino or K-Love guarded him, Wallace immediately went inside and overpowered his defender on the block. But when Big Al tried to guard him, Wallace used his quickness to his advantage. He took the bigger Jefferson out to the perimeter and bounced it past him or shot three-pointers. 

That was the case down the stretch where 'Sheed scored seven in a row as Detroit finished the game on a 13-3 run.

4. Thoughts on A.I.

While the moody No. 1 is getting older and he doesn't totally attack the basket on every play, he still can motor at spurts. When he wants to, A.I. can blow by almost any guard in the league and get into the paint.

The other thing that is amazing when you sit close to the floor -- as was the case last night -- is that he really isn't very big. It's like he could be simply snapped in half by a big guy. 

While I can understand the people who don't really like him and think he's a total punk, I totally respect him. He plays hard all the time and he's totally fearless. Nothing wrong with any of that.

5. A view from the not-so-cheap seats

Sat in some corporate seats a few rows up from the Wolves bench for the first time since the coaching change. The difference was staggering. It was so much more peaceful.

It's been very clear that McHale has a much more laid back personality during games than Wittman. That is clear from some of the other seats I've sat in and from watching on TV. But sitting up close, it's amazing how quiet it is. McHale isn't calling out plays all the time, he doesn't stomp his feat. He gets on the officials a little bit and yells almost exclusively encouraging things at his team. He doesn't freak when they make a mistake. It's totally refreshing. 

That's it for now. Will post later on my thoughts about K-Love, Big Al and the All-Star Game.

Off to the Target Center

Thanks to a work colleague who had a customer cancel at the last minute, I'm off to the Target Center and will sit in some stupid-good seats tonight.

It will certainly beat buying cheap tickets and sneaking downstairs at halftime. I didn't just write that, did I?

And if you read this, feel free to drop a note. Or comment. Would love to know if anybody is reading. Or entertained.

So Pistons, when did you become crappy?

I'm guessing the best place to watch tonight's Wolves-Piston games would be in front what I can only assume is some massive flat screen in the Medina compound of one Phil "Flip" Saunders.

Saunders, after all, was fired by Detroit last June after the Pistons lost to Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. I'm not sure, but I'm pretty sure that group in green wasn't bad. Saunders run in Detroit went like this:

05-06: 64 wins and a trip to the East finals

06-07: 53 wins and a trip to the East finals

07-08: 59 wins and a trip to the East finals

That's why watching tonight's game with Saunders would be so fascinating. He coached both teams -- after all, McHale's first run as Wolves coach came after Saunders was fired here -- and the Pistons have seriously gone backwards this season. 

Detroit is an awfully average 24-19 for the season and the Pistons have been the anti-Wolves this month. While Minnesota has won game after game in January, Detroit is guaranteed to have its first losing month since 2004 and has lost eight of last 11 games. 

The Pistons are probably still a playoff team in the east, but there won't be another long run to the East finals this season. The A.I. experiment has been a mess and has seemed to have created rotation/lineup issues -- I mean, I certainly wouldn't bring Richard Hamilton off of the bench just to keep A.I. happy. 

For a deeper look at the once mighty -- and now kind of old -- Pistons click on this analysis of the team by Booth newspapers beat writer A. Sherrod Blakely. It talks about how the once mighty defense of the Pistons has become extremely soft. After all, the Rockets lit up Detroit for 39 in the first quarter on Sunday. In consecutive losses to Dallas and Houston, the Pistons gave up 112 and 108 points respectively.

In addition, first-year coach Michael Cooper is certainly going through some growing pains. There has been much talk about him wanting a significant amount of structure -- and, hence, control -- in the Detroit offense. That seems to be kind of Wittman-like, doesn't it?

What does all of this mean for the Wolves? It means that this suddenly looks like a winnable game and that's important considering the Lakers are at The 600 Project on Friday night and the Wolves appear to be nothing more than a Super Bowl appetizer at the Celtics on Sunday. For that to happen, the Wolves need to continue to move the ball and push it when the opportunity is there. Get the Pistons running, jump on them early and grab control. This certainly won't be as easy as the early-season (and shocking) butt-kicking the Wolves put on the Pistons early this season, but this doesn't look nearly as tough as it did before.

Two other things:

1. I now know how the Wolves won at Detroit by 26 points back in November -- McCants didn't play in that game either.

2. Anybody watch that Lakers-Bobcats game last night? Very entertaining. My question, however, is whether Andrew Bynum will be suspended for his cheap shot on Gerald Wallace late in the fourth quarter? Wallace was driving to the hoop and Bynum cracked him hard in the ribs. Wallace had to be taken to the hospital because of a potential collapsed lung. It was a total goon play.

One quote that sums everything up

Gotta love Randy Foye. This was from Jerry Zgoda's game story this morning and about the change in attitude.

"The way we were playing, we weren't even playing mediocre basketball. Basically, we were playing win one, lose six, win one lose six. Every time we won a game, it felt like we won the championship. But now, if you look around here, we win these games and it's like we're supposed to beat these teams. We're supposed to come out every night and win."

He continued:

"When we lose, we're mad, we're upset. Before, it was like we were supposed to lose. It's a different attitude now with the Timberwolves."

Yes, yes it is. And that's a good thing.

News flash: K-Love can rebound

That's what you'll find here at Henry Abbott's TrueHoop blog.

Despite not starting and not playing mega-minutes, Love currently leads the Association in offensive rebound percentage and is fifth in total offensive rebounds.

Good to see the big rook get a little attention.

Wolves 90, Bucks 83: A little more like it

To truly understand the importance of Monday's 90-83 victory at Milwaukee, you have to look back at Sunday night's come-from-behind victory against the Bulls.

Because as much grit as the Wolves showed in the overtime victory over Chicago, it had to much of an early-season feel to it. You know, kind of a Wittman feel to it. Why? Because there was too much Big Al for my taste. 

The 39 points were great and there are going to be nights when a player gets hot. But it seemed that there were times when the Wolves offense could be summed up like this: Throw the ball to the big fella, stand around and watch him.

So that brings us back to Tuesday night and the second half of a back-to-back at the Bradley Center. Which Wolves offense would show up? The share-the-ball-and-zip-it-around Wolves of the past six weeks? Or the stand-around-and-watch-Big-Al-while-Wittman-stomps-his-feet Wolves?

Maybe it is simply paranoia that the recent play under McHale is simply a dream and eventually someone is going to say, 'Ah, this was all just a big joke, your team is still horrible.' 

Well if that is going to happen (and it still seems possible), it didn't happen on Monday night. Instead of going back in time to early December, the standing around appeared to be a one-night event.

This was far from a perfect outing for the Wolves. There were turnovers, there were missed shots and there was a crap fourth quarter, but there was a third quarter that gave a look at how the Wolves have progressed.

The scoring for the Wolves in the third went like this:

Bassy 3, Al layup, Gomes layup, Al jumper, Al dunk, Bassy jumper, Smith layoup, Smith dunk, Foye FTs, Love FT, Smith hook, Gomes FT, Love FTs, Gomes.

If you're counting, that is six different players scoring. It was a quarter that let the Wolves stretch their lead from four points to 14.

Other items of note:

- How about Mike Miller actually making a three-pointer that meant something, buring one in the fourth quarter that stretched the Wolves lead from six to nine.

- Gomes' 22 points were a season high.

- The Wolves are now 12-12 under McHale, a fairly amazing feat considering they lost eight in a row after Wittman was fired.

- Minnesota has won 10 games in a month for the first time since March '05.

- I liked J.B. Bickerstaff's look of the argyle sweater and no tie under his jacket. Very solid.

- 

Monday midday

We're about t-minus six hours until the Wolves and injured-as-hell Bucks take the floor in Milwaukee. Hopefully the team in blue won't eat too much cheese or drink too much beer between now and then.

Anyway, a few items:

Getting to .500?*

This needs an asterisk because it isn't exactly really that .500 we're talking about. At 15-27, the Wolves have a long way to get to .500 for the season (and frankly, going  26-14 the rest of the way seems like a stretch).

But a Wolves victory tonight would get Minnesota to .500 under Kevin McHale. Despite the fact that the coach with the horrible fashion sense lost his first eight games in his return to the bench, the Wolves are now 11-12 in the post-Wittman era.

A 10-win month?

Sunday night's come-from-behind win over the Bulls was the ninth in January for the Wolves. They now have three chances -- tonight at Milwaukee, Wednesday against Detroit and Friday against the Lakers -- to win a 10th game in January.

To put that into context, the Wolves haven't won 10 games in a month since March '05. They needed a victory at the Lakers on the last day of the month and some dude named Garnett went for 23 and 12 that night.

A little further context: In March '05 Corey Brewer was a freshman at Florida, Al Jefferson was averaging 6.7 ppg as a rookie for the Celtics, Kevin Love was a sophomore at Lake Oswego High School in Oregon and Mark Madsen was the only current Wolf on the roster.

See ya Mike Miller

Well, I guess this means Mike Miller really is out of here. This morning, Star Tribune columnist Sid Hartman wrote that Miller isn't going to be traded. I have two thoughts on that. 

1. Considering the track record of the old man, is there any reason to believe that Miller isn't totally gone? Because usually reality is about 180 degrees removed from what he writes.

2. I guess I don't get the sourcing on the piece. Sid quotes McHale saying Miller isn't being shopped and won't be moved. That's cool and all, but there is a small problem with that: McHale allegedly isn't involved in player moves. His front office days are allegedly done and he's just the coach. 

Item two I don't get

Also this morning, Jim Souhan pens his second Wolves column in three days. But his lead is totally flawed. He says that "The Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves made the two most dramatic decisions in the early rounds of the NBA Draft." He then talks about how the Bulls were smart to take D-Rose first and the Wolves did the right thing by shipping Mayo to Memphis for K-Love.

The thing is, the Bulls were never going to take Michael Beasley. As soon as they won the draft lottery, they were going to take Rose. While Beasley might turn out to be a star,  I think he is kind of a guy without a position as he isn't really big enough to play the 4, but can't guard 3s in the NBA. Rose is an elite PG prospect. My understanding from a friend with the Bulls is that there really wasn't a choice to be made. It was that clear cut.

Thoughts on the Bucks

It will be interesting to see how Milwaukee responds tonight on several fronts. This will be the Bucks first game since guard Michael Redd was lost for the season Saturday night with a knee injury. The Bucks were already very much in a battle for one of the last playoff spots in the East and this certainly doesn't help.

Will the Bucks play hard and try to prove they can win without Redd? Or will they still be feeling sorry for themselves? That's very much an unknown. In addition, Redd told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that PG Luke Ridenour has been repeatedly apologizing for accidentally  stepping on Redd's foot, something that may have been a factor in the injury. How will Ridenour respond tonight?

The Wolves won the second meeting against Milwaukee a year ago so they will attempt to extend their winning streak over the Bucks to three games. The Wolves haven't won at the Bradley Center, however, since 2004. The Wolves are also 2-10 this year in the second half of back-to-backs, but both wins have come this month.

Wolves 109, Bulls 108: Don't forget Bassy

The easy angles are as follows:

1. Wolves miss their first 11 shots, trail by 16 points at one point and come back to beat the Bulls in OT. Heck the Bulls led by seven with less than five minutes to go.

2. Big Al was a total monster, going for 39 and nine. Helps solidify his case to be a Western Conference All-Star

3. K-Love continues to get better. He plays a career-high 33 minutes. His 19 points are one off of his rookie best. His 15 rebounds equal his best.

But I don't want to talk about any of that. Some of it is because there will be plenty of places where you can read about Big Al killing. But some of it is that the Wolves don't win this game without Sebastian Telfair.

No, I'm not crazy. Here's why:

Bassy played very good defense both at the end of the regulation and at the end of overtime. With the ball and a chance to win at both the end of the fourth and overtime, Bulls PG Derrick Rose had the ball on both occasions. And why not? Barring injury, Rose seems to be a lock for rookie of the year, he's super quick and is strong enough to get to the hole.

At the end of regulation, Bassy contested Rose's 17-footer. While he got some help on the play, Telfair had his had in Rose's face and forced the rookie to take an off-balance shot. At the end of overtime, the stronger Rose tried to post-up Bassy on the right block. Bassy forced him to go left where Rose had to deal at least a little with the backboard. The shot didn't fall and after the ball bounced around a little, the horn sounded and the Wolves won for the 10th time in their last 14 games.

But Bassy's contribution was about more than helping to hold Rose scoreless over the last 5:10 of regulation and all of overtime. He also kept them in the game early. Telfair scored all nine of his points in the first quarter and played a big role in keeping the Wolves in the game. He seemed to be the only guy who had any jump and without him, the initial hole would have been even deeper.

Big Al and K-Love were very good against the Bulls and deserve a ton of credit. But the Wolves probably don't win without Bassy.

Monday = No Redd, perhaps no Bogut

This is bad for the Milwaukee Bucks, but good for the Timberwolves: Bucks gunner Michael Redd is done for the season.

According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

"The Bucks have confirmed that guard Michael Redd will be lost for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. Redd suffered the injury in the third quarter of Saturday's game against the Sacramento Kings."

When the Wolves beat the Bucks on Jan. 10, they extended their winning streak to five games. And they did it despite Redd going off for 32 points. Redd was averaging about 25 ppg in January before the injury.

While the game will be the second half of a home-road back-to-back for the Wolves, this will be Milwaukee's first game without Redd since he came back from an ankle injury. When Redd missed 14 games earlier this season, Milwaukee went 5-9. 

Charlie Bell started in Redd's absence earlier this season, but Bell is out now with a right ankle injury. It's unclear what Scott Skiles will do in terms of a starting lineup, but point guard Ramon Sessions will likely see minutes at the 2.

The Bucks might also be without center Andrew Bogut, who has missed six in a row with back spasms. According to the Journal Sentinel, the hope is that Bogut will be back for the Wolves game, but it isn't certain.

Why this? Why now? Am I late to the party?

In other words, this is an introduction.

As I write this, the Minnesota Timberwolves are only about an hour from tipping off for their 42nd game of this 2008-09 season. As Kevin McHale's Project 600 prepares for what seems to be a winnable game against the Chicago Bulls, the Wolves are suddenly luke warm. 

Considering where this franchise has been for the past, say, four years, that's pretty good.

Despite a season that has seen Randy Wittman get fired and the Wolves lose 23 of their first 27 games, there are finally signs of life in these Timberwolves. Since Christmas, Minnesota has won 10 of 14 games and that building at 600 N. First Ave., is starting to come to life a little bit.

So why am I here?

It's a combination of things really. I have had something of a love/hate relationship with the NBA. There have been times when I've really loved the game, but other times when I had much more interest in the college game. But I've started to gain a much greater appreciation for the NBA. The league has the best players in the world, there is far more coaching going on than most people realize and almost every team has somebody worth watching. 

As far as the Wolves go, I guess I'm like a lot of Minnesota sports fans. I want them to have success, but have been repeatedly frustrated. There have been the countless lottery disappointments, the first-round exits, a list of knuckleheads ranging from Rider to McCants. There was the Joe Smith disaster, the failed experiment with Spree and the Alien and the complete dismissal of the second round of the draft.

But as I say that, there is no other pro team in town that I would rather invest myself in. I realize that sounds crazy, but it comes down to this for me: The Wolves appear to be headed in the right direction, they have a young core, they play hard and it's easy to walk out of Target Center after a game feeling like you got a very good return on your investment.

I realize there are other Wolves blogs out there and that's cool. I'm not out here to "compete" with any of them, but I hope to complement what is going on at twolvesblog.com and canishoopus.com. I'm not going to link as much as the twolvesblog folks and I don't have a message board. I'm probably not going to get quite as much into stats and math as canishoopus, but I do like some of that stuff. 

My hope is to provide some context, some entertainment and create a place that features some reasonably smart writing, some interesting stats and a little bit of humor. I hope you enjoy.