Monday, November 30, 2009

Yes, amazing does happen.

Yes, cue up the Kanye West. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves won a game. On the road. Against a good team. It is quite amazing.

I thought the Wolves were destined for an 0-for-November streak when they entered Sunday night's game at Denver. Minnesota, after all, was playing a Nuggets team that defeated it by 13 points at home just a few nights earlier. And that final score was closer than how the game really played out.

If you look at the Wolves 15-game losing streak, the numbers are pretty staggering. Only four of the losses were by single digits. There was a 41 point loss at Golden State, a 28 point loss to Portland and a 25 point loss to Phoenix. The average margin of defeat in this stretch was by 15.13 points. 

So how did they beat a Denver team that has been very solid so far this season? I know this sounds extremely lame and the stats geeks aren't going to like it, but the Wolves shot the ball well over the final three quarters, they played good defense and they never freaked out.

After an awful first quarter, the Wolves made 32 of 59 shots over the final three quarters. They shot better than 50 percent in the second and third and shot exactly 50 percent in the fourth quarter. We haven't seen that this season. Even after last night's victory, the Wolves still rank 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and effective FG% percentage according to Knickerblogger's stat page. 

On the other end of the floor, Denver shot poorly. While it's difficult to really know if this was crooked shooting by the Nuggs or great defense by Minnesota (maybe a little of each?), Denver shot 41.7 percent for the game and was only 4-19 as the Wolves got back in the game in the fourth quarter.

The Wolves also showed some poise for maybe the first time this season. They were below their season average for turnovers (which means Jonny Flynn played more under control than in the past), they never got rattled when Denver rallied down the stretch. They continued to defend and run their offense. There weren't a ton of forced shots or early in the clock shots in the fourth quarter. Those are good signs. 

One thing that I liked while watching the game and really liked when looking at the Popcorn Machine gameflow was how Rambis managed his bench. As I've blogged about in the past, I don't think the Wolves can just go and put in the second unit all at once. There is too much of a dropoff.

Last night, there wasn't a single time in which there wasn't at least one starter on the floor. After halftime, there were at least two starters on the floor at all times. That, to me, is important. The Wolves aren't good enough to just slide in five new guys, especially offensively. There were times in the losing streak in which Rambis would put a lineup of guys on the floor that simply couldn't score. That, for once, changed.

Now here's the big question: Can the Wolves win two in a row? With an average Memphis team coming in on Wednesday, I don't think it's impossible. While it may not happen, at least now that is a possibility. Sure beats saying that the losing streak was crawling toward 20. 

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Negativity on Thanksgiving

A few things on this Turkey Day.

1. Many apologies for a recent lack of blogging. I haven't given up, I've just been a bit busier than I would like in my work life. I do so hate when work gets in the way of other things. I did have most of a post written after last week's loss to Houston, but it never quite got finished. My take was that I want to see more Ramon Sessions and less Jonny Flynn. 

2. I'm out of town this weekend so I didn't see a single second of last night's loss to Denver and, barring something really strange, won't see any of tomorrow night's game against Phoenix. From looking at the box score and seeing some video highlights on nba.com, it seemed like more of the same: missed shots, little defense and a fourth-quarter rally against the other team's reserves to make it look closer than it really was.

3. I do wonder exactly when the Timberwolves are going to win another game. I knew this season was going to be a challenge and that became an even greater challenge once KLove broke his hand in the preseason, but I didn't think it was going to be this bad. I thought we were looking at a 25-win season or something in that ballpark. So we're sitting here on Thanksgiving and the Wolves are 1-14 and they are really very close to being 0-15. Last night's loss makes it official that this is the worst start in Wolves history. 

Think about that for a second: Worst start in Wolves history. That really is saying something. We have seen a good amount of bad basketball here in the Twin Cities. Hell, the didn't get to 20 wins in either 92 or 93 before following that up with 20 wins in 94 and 21 wins in 95. But all of those teams recorded more than one win in the first 15 games of the season. 

I can't see the Wolves beating Phoenix tomorrow night or winning at Denver on Sunday. That will make them 0-for-November. That, friends, is brutal.

There is one thing I'm thankful for on this day, however.

1. I am thankful that we do have a NBA team to watch, despite the recent sucking of the Wolves. I recently saw a friend from Seattle who was in town for work. He talked about how once the Seahawks are through, there isn't all that much to get excited about until the Mariners start in April. Yes, there is college hoops, but it isn't the same.

So we do have that.


Monday, November 16, 2009

I'm talkin' about practice. Not a game. Practice

So as the Memphis Grizzlies and Allen Iverson parted ways for good, the Minnesota Timberwolves got back to work. Al Jefferson was supposed to be back in the Twin Cities and Kurt Rambis worked his team in the bowels of the Target Center.

On Tuesday, they'll do the same thing. And this is very good. 

Because since this season began, there has been very little time for the Timberwolves to actually practice and actually work to improve. 

Prior to the current stretch of three days between Saturday's loss at Memphis and Wednesday night's home game against Houston, the Wolves had not had consecutive days off this season. They'd had three back-to-backs and two trips to the Pacific time zone, but no consecutive days off.

So instead of having opportunities to really focus on themselves and work on the details of the triangle offense, Minnesota's options were pretty much play, prepare for the next game and play again.  For a team with as many new players and coaches and players (whoops, seen the commercial too many times), that isn't a good thing.

Now two practices aren't going to turn the Wolves into the MJ-Pippen Bulls or the Kobe Lakers, one would hope that there will be at least a little improvement. After all, the Wolves are about as bad as they could be offensively. According to John Hollinger's advanced stats on ESPN.com, Minnesota is 28th in the Association in offensive efficiency. The Wolves are scoring only 91.6 points per 100 offensive possessions. Only winless New Jersey and Charlotte are worse offensively. At the same time, they are giving up 106.3 points per 100 possessons (20th). And you wonder why they've lost 10 in a row. 

Because of a multitude of real world responsibilities, I probably won't blog again until Wednesday morning. But the time we get to that point, hopefully the Wolves will be looking a little better. 

And maybe they will have signed AI. (Kidding).

Sunday, November 15, 2009

What is David Kahn thinking today?

Oh how I would love to get an honest answer of what's going through David Kahn's mind today.

After all, let's look at the past 48 hours or so.
- The Wolves lose to Dallas (not a surprise).
- Kahn sends out his 'I know we suck, but hang with us' letter.
- Wolves, without Big Al and KLove, lose the battle for last place in the West at Memphis. The Timberwolves have now lost 10 in a row and are in DFL in the West.

And if that wasn't enough, enter Brandon Jennings to rub a little salt in the wound.

If you haven't heard, Jennings dropped a smooth 55 on Golden State on Saturday night. And he did it after going scoreless in the first quarter. He made 12 of 13 shots in the third quarter, scoring 29 points in that 12 minute span. He broke the Bucks single-game scoring record for a rookie, which might be that big of a deal except for the fact that it was previously held by a dude we all know as Kareem. It was the most points by a NBA rookie since Earl the Pearl dropped 56 in 1968.

The result is a whole ton of second-guessing of Kahn. After all, Kahn is the guy who passed on Jennings not once, but twice in June's NBA Draft when he took Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn. Was he a fool? Will Rubio/Flynn over Jennings become to Kahn what Ebi over Josh Howard or Brandon Roy for Randy Foye became for Kevin McHale?

I was in Target Center a couple of weeks ago when the Bucks were in town. What we saw that night was Jennings worst performance of the season. He went 4 for 16 and finished with only 9 points. Flynn outscored him that night and things looked just fine for the Wolves.

But in his other six games this season, Jennings has scored 17 points twice, 24, 25, 32 and, now, 55.

What does all of this mean? It's far to early to know. But early returns aren't great. Brandon Jennings certainly looks like he has the potential to be very special.

What do you think Kahn is thinking today?

UPDATE: Very nice Brandon Jennings story from Yahoo! writer Adrian Wojnarowski here. Worth the read.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Note from Kahn

Jerry Zgoda just posted this note on his blog from GM David Kahn.

There isn't anything too earth-shattering in it. But it is probably good to try to have some direct conversation with fans.

I, like the GM, was happy to see some fight against Dallas. And I'm cool with Hollins getting tossed out. It shows that the players at least care.

Can they beat Memphis tonight? I guess it's possible, but the combo of no Big Al and the second half of a back-to-back seems difficult to overcome.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Forgot one thing

Meant to add this to the post below, but there is some good news for Wolves fans. 

This morning's Star Tribune featured a piece by Phil Miller, who has been hired part time to help Zgoda on Wolves coverage. This is really good news on several fronts. Miller, who was most recently the Twins beat writer at the Pioneer Press before being laid off, is very good and experienced in covering the NBA. Before his time in St. Paul, he was the Jazz beat writer for the Salt Lake Tribune.

But, to me, it also means that the Timberwolves has some value to editors at the paper. Last season, the Pioneer Press quit sending a reporter to road games and began hiring freelancers in road cities who may or may not have known a whole helluva lot about the Wolves. 

For the Star Tribune to ensure that Zgoda gets help (important with all the travel and the back-to-backs) is a good things for those of us who are interested in the team.

A few thoughts entering a two-loss weekend

I guess I might as well get the Wolves-related item out of the way: I can't see the Timberwolves winning anything this weekend, with Big Al at home for personal reasons. The only question is how bad they'll get beat.

First of all, I hope things turn out all right for Al and his family. Certainly that's more important than a couple of games. But I'm guessing anybody who has Dirk, Dampier or Marc Gasol on their fantasy team is looking forward to big games. I'm guessing that Nate Jawai and Ryan Hollins aren't exactly going to scare anybody.

Now onto a few other items:

1. I think Mark Cuban is a cool dude (at least sometimes)
Yes, he's loud, brash and kind of a jerk at times, but there is something kind of endearing about Cuban. While I totally disagree with the stuff he said about Kenyon Martin last year during the playoffs, the dude scored some points with me last night.

Not a shock here, but Cuban is big into the interwebs. He blogs like crazy and he's a Twitter fool. But he also gets the social part of social media. What do I mean?

Last night, a Twin Cities Twitter group had a tweet-up at the Bulldog N.E. in (duh) Northeast Minneapolis. So what happens after the Mavericks got to town for tonight's game? Yep, Cuban showed up. That, in my book, is totally cool. There were pictures of Cuban with normal folks all over Twitter last night. Apparently he was great.

Could you see Glen Taylor just showing up at a bar and talking to 20- and 30-something Wolves fans (I'm talking age, not numbers)? He just doesn't seem like a normal guy in the way that Cuban does. On the list of NBA owners who I would like to have a beer or eight with, Cuban is certainly near the top.

Imagine the loyalty Cuban builds with Mavs fans by being a fan? Imagine how excited people would be if Cuban, for example, showed up in a bar with 30 Mavs t-shirts and handed them out? Those people would have a great experience and very well could become big-time brand loyalists.

2. I hate Thursday nights

I know Howlin' T-Wolf tweeted yesterday how he thought last night's TNT games were going to be great. Maybe I'm a bit too cynical, but the last thing I really need to see is more Cavs and Lakers.

There is nothing that irritates me more than watching the same teams over and over and over on national TV. Clearly teams like Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, the Lakers and San Antonio are good, but the league does have 30 teams. That is pretty much the entire reason why I bought the NBA League Pass. I like watching teams try to get better, I like team basketball rather than superstar basketball and I get board with the overhyped.

Aside from the Wolves, I enjoy watching Portland and Oklahoma City more than any other teams. I'm cool with Denver and Atlanta and the Sixers. I'll even watch Charlotte by choice. And there is nothing better than getting in bed and watching those crazy Golden State Warriors for a quarter or so before crashing for the night.

That's why Thursday's are so brutal. Last night, there wasn't another game on the schedule so the options were the overhyped or Grey's Anatomy with the lady. Clearly I watched Meredith and Derek and the rest of those Crazy Kids at Seattle Grace.

3. My biggest surprise

This kind of fits in with the last post, but how about giving it up a little bit for the Sacramento Kings? They lose Kevin Martin and get better? I would not have thought that. I watched much of the second half the other night of Kings-OKC and was very impressed. Jason Thompson was very solid. Beno Udrih has been good as has Tyreke Evans. The Kings are destined for the lotter again, but there might be a little more talent there than I originally thought

That's it for now. No regular TV on the Wolves the next couple of games. Not sure if I'll get them on my League Pass. I hope so, but if not, at least I won't miss anything of great note.

We aren't alone

Nice column this morning in the New York Post by Mike Vacarro on the sorry Knicks.

The Wolves are certainly not alone in feeling helpless in Novemeber.

My favorite part of the column:

"They are simply an awful basketball team. They are outmanned. They are outgunned. They are a beaten-down eight-track player in an iPod world, an analog throwback in an NBA that went digital years ago. You want to be angry. You want to be appalled. You want to be disgusted.

And then you take another look at the team on the floor.


And it all makes sense."


You can read the rest of it here.

More later with some random thoughts for a Friday.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Game 9: Do I need to revise my expectations?

I don't think my initial expectations were unreasonable for this Timberwolves team. I was quite certain this team had no chance at making the playoffs. I didn't even think they would get to 30 wins. But I did think they would be improved over a year ago.

I know that KLove is going to be coming back and that Al still has work to do. But I guess I didn't expect a team that really wasn't going to be competitive on many nights.

I thought 25 wins was very realistic. I thought something close to 30 was possible if things went well.

I didn't watch as much of last night's loss to Portland as I wanted to. I watched the first half at home, but then went out for a little while last night and the bar didn't have the game on. By the time I got to the bar, I saw on Twitter that the Blazers were pulling away and it didn't really matter.

So as the Wolves prepare for Friday night's game against Dallas, they sit here at 1-8. They are tied for the fewest victories in the West. And if it wasn't for the the hella comeback on opening night against New Jersey, these would be your winless Wolves.

While that is certainly bad, it is even worse when you play the what-if game. Let's just say, for fun, that the Wolves would have gotten a couple of fourth-quarter breaks in the early part of this season. They would have beat Boston. And they might have won either at Phoenix or the Clipp Joint. So there's two more wins. That's the sad thing, if you look back, the best you can say they deserve to be is 3-6.

Other than that, it has been disaster after disaster. Five of their losses have been by 15 points or more and only two have been by less than five points.

The Wolves have 10 more games this month: Dallas, at Memphis, Houston, at Portland, at Clippers, Nuggets, Phoenix, Memphis, at New Orleans and Utah.

How many of these are really winnable?

Dallas? Nope, not even at home.

The game at Memphis seems like a possibility, but the problem is that it is the second half of a back-to-back for the Wolves and the Griz have two days off before that.

Houston at home? I guess maybe if they play well.

at Portland? Considering what we've seen this month, no chance.

at Clippers? Not unrealistic at all.

Denver? Nope.

Phoenix? Not against the biggest surprise so far in the West.

Memphis? Probably the best chance for a win the rest of the month.

at New Orleans? Big Al's first return to where he got hurt. I don't love the Hornets, but they are better than the Wolves.

Utah? Surprised the Jazz have struggled the way they have. This, I suppose, is possible.

So where does that leave us? Is this team going to struggle to win 20 games? Are they going to win fewer games than the Gophers men's team?

If you haven't read Jerry Zgoda's game story from this morning in the Star Tribune, you should. It was pretty good. Loved the honest from Big Al.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

What will adjustments look like?

Let's be honest about Kurt Rambis' life as a NBA assistant coach: He's led a pretty charmed life. 

He's coached in four NBA Finals as a Lakers assistants. He was on the staff of two teams that won championships. He is used to winning. 

That winning part means that, at least most of the time, the guys on his bench were better than the guys on the other bench. That means that getting better results means needing the Lakers to execute better on the floor. Maybe it meant changing up some defensive assignments. 

We're talking little things. Not big things.

That's part of what I'm most interested about with tonight's Wolves-Blazers game. Tonight is the first time in the Rambis era in Minnesota in which the Wolves will play a team for the second time. How will the Wolves mix things up against a team that mopped the floor with them on Sunday night.

I can't imagine that Rambis is simply going to roll out the same guys and attack the Blazers the same way. Because the last way didn't work. 

Here's what I'd like to see: More Big Al and Ryan Hollins together against the Blazers. Portland is a very difficult matchup for the Timberwolves because of Greg Oden and Lamarcus Aldridge. Oden is a monster, a total load inside while Aldridge is long, lean and athletic. Oden posts up like crazy, Aldridge runs the floor like crazy.

If we learned anything in Sunday's loss, it is that Pecherov can't keep up with Aldridge. Just can't happen. I don't think the Wolves can go small because the 6-11 Aldridge seems like he would simply post up, say, the 6-7 Gomes. 

I expect the Wolves to get mopped up again, but I am interested to see how Rambis adjusts.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

The wheels have fallen off....

Do you remember the good ol' days? You know all the way back to last Wednesday?

Remember when Al Jefferson made that shot with 9:50 to go in the third quarter against the Celtics? The Timberwolves led Boston, 56-45. Target Center was jumping. That smug punk Kevin Garnett was, hopefully, going to take himself to Boston with a loss. Things were great.

It seems so long ago now doesn't it?

Because what we've seen since then has been beyond awful. 

Over the final 21:50 of what would be a one-point loss to the Celtics, the Wolves were outscored 47-35. They followed that up with a no-rebounding 87-72 loss to Milwaukee. Next up was a 116-93 loss at Portland and last night's 146-105 embarrassment at Golden State.

Add that up and the math is really ugly. Over those 3-plus games, the Wolves have been outscored 396-305. Yes, they have been outscored by 91 points over a little less than 166 minutes. 

How is that even possible?

In the losses to Milwaukee, Portland and Golden State, opponents shot 49.8 percent from the floor and 44.8 percent on 3s. That, my friends, is defense that can be best described as close to zero. Or less than zero. 

While I can accept the loss at Portland, I have a far harder time with the Milwaukee and Golden State losses. These are not playoff teams. These are not rosters filled with talent. These are peers of the Timberwolves. And if this is how the Wolves measure up with teams like them, it is going to be a long winter in the Twin Cities.

A couple of other things:

1. Remember that Oleksiy Pecherov dude? He played six minutes against Golden State. Yes, six. I understand that the way that the Warriors spread the floor doesn't really fit Pecherov's ability. But this is the same guy who really dominated KG less than a week earlier.

2. ESPN.com's John Hollinger and Chad Ford wrote an interesting piece today in which they did power rankings for where the 30 NBA franchises are based on the next three years. They looked at player, management, money, market and upcoming draft picks. The good news is that the Wolves weren't last. The bad news is that they are in the bottom third, ranking 22nd. The team was dinged for management (26th), the market (28th, and weather was used against us) and current players (21st). The good news is money (8th) and draft (7th). The overall ranking was 10th in the Western Conference. 

I thought a couple of the results were interesting: Portland was first, Oklahoma City was 4th and Phoenix was 27th. Certainly worth a read. And the franchises the Wolves were ranked ahead of: New Orleans, Washington, Memphis, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacto, Milwaukee and (drumroll, please) Charlotte.


Quick update

Yes, I watched last night. No, I haven't given up on the blog.

Call it late night, early morning, day full of meetings. Will blog more later. 

Until then, feast your eyes on this New York Times story. Read it and each time you see the word Knicks, replace it with Wolves. Basically it is about how even when the eyes are on the future, there is still this pesky 2009-10 season that has to be played.

Will blog a bit more later.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Mr. True Hoop checks out the Wolves

Henry Abbott, the genius behind the True Hoop blog (now on espn.com), checked out the Wolves-Blazers game last night. He had five quick thoughts.

You can read about them here

Just wanted to share.

Game 7: The rotation riddle

After sitting in the Target Center stands on Friday night and watching last night's mess at Portland, I find myself curious about the Rambis Rotation.

As I look at this Timberwolves team, the one thing I don't see is an overabundance of talent, a long list of guys who are swimming in awesomeness. I see one star in Big Al, a couple of guys who have a chance to be very good in Flynn and KLove and then a collection of role players of varying degrees. Corey Brewer and Ryan Gomes are decent players, but would they start on a really good team? 

After that, the roster is littered with guys who either are young and unproven or old and get by on their grit.

What does this mean? It means I wonder why then have there been times when Rambis has a team on the floor without a single starter?

I'm not sure the Wolves could have beaten Portland the way the Blazers played last night, but when Rambis went to the bench at the end of the first quarter and beginning of the second, all hope of victory was lost. Late in the first quarter and early in the second, the Wolves were outscored by 8 points when they had the group of Ryan Hollins, Wayne Ellington, Nate Jawai, Ramon Sessions and Sasha Pavlovic on the floor.

I wonder why. Maybe it is because none of those guys are go-to scorers and are all supporting scorers? You think.

On Friday night's loss to Milwaukee, the Wolves lost significant ground in the second half when they had Brewer, Hollins, Sessions, Sasha and Wilkins on the floor.  

I get the cat-and-mouse game that is played between coaching staffs and that it might be smart to sit Al when Nate McMillin takes Greg Oden out of the game. But I'd like to see a way for Rambis to rotate his roster so that there is always a scorer on the floor. 

How do you do that? I realize it is a challenge. But if there's one thing that the Wolves have going for them, it is the fact that the roster is filled with young guys. You don't want to run them into the ground, but its possible for the younger guys to play a few more minutes in spurts. 

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Don't know what to say

A friend of mine and long-time Wolves season ticket holder summed up last night's loss to Milwaukee simply: "That was the worst game I've every seen"

He might not have been to far off. 

As we walked out of Target Center and to a First Avenue watering hole, he was livid. 

I realize that there are going to plenty of nights when the Wolves get thrashed. That's the reality of a young, rebuilding team. I get that and can accept that.

What I can't really accept is the Wolves getting their asses kicked by an average at best Bucks team that no longer has Richard Jefferson or Charlie V and one that doesn't have a healthy Michael Redd. I also can't accept the Wolves apparent fear of rebounding. And the ball movement was crap.

How bad were the Wolves last night? The easiest way to sum it up is that Luke Ridnour was the best guard on the court. For real.

When this week started, I thought the Wolves could win two games. I thought winning at the Clippers was very possible and I was certain they would beat Milwaukee at home. Neither happened and the Wolves are now 1-5 and play at a Portland team tomorrow night that looked pretty good in a win over San Antonio last night. I can't see a win there, but maybe Monday night's game at Golden State is a possibility.

I'm cool with the reality that progress will be slow. But I would like to see some effort. 

That's all.

Update: The Target Center looked like the TC of last year. Lots and lots of empty seats. The good news was that I got two $50 tickets for a total of $39. Still I feel a bit ripped off.

Friday, November 6, 2009

The point guard situation

In the wake of Wednesday night's come-from-ahead loss to Boston, I had two people separately say that they were disappointed that Jonny Flynn was on the floor at the end of the game. Maybe I should rephrase that, they were disappointed that Ramon Sessions wasn't on the floor.

There certainly is room to make that argument. And until Kevin Love returns and Kurt Rambis has to figure out how he wants to carve up frontcourt minutes, point guard may be the most interesting position to watch.

In Flynn and Sessions, the Wolves have two very different point guards. Flynn brings more energy and has a greater potential to do things that make you say wow. But he also has a far greater potential to do something stupid or make a mistake. Sessions is far more steady. He seems to run at the same temperature regardless of what is happening. He's less flashy but more experienced and steady. He's very solid and makes way more good decisions than bad.

Frankly both of them could learn a little bit from the other.

I understand why Rambis doesn't play them together. To do that makes the Wolves very small -- especially defensively. It also means that CBrewer moves to the 3 and Gomes plays the 4 (assuming they are both on the floor). I think Brewer can play either the 2 or the 3, but the early parts of this season have shown that Gomes is far more comfortable at the 3 than playing power forward.

All of this leaves Rambis in a little bit of a bind at point guard. Let's look a little closer to minutes/rotations/productivity in the second half.

With the Wolves leading by 8 at halftime, Rambis went for his original starters to begin the second half. The PG breakdown goes like this:

Third quarter
- Flynn plays the first 9:02. The Wolves as a team are -7 in this stretch. At the same time, Boston PG Rajon Rondo is in the midst of scoring 14 points over the first 10:36 of the third quarter.
- Sessions enters the game with 2:58 to go in the third quarter and plays the rest of the way. The Wolves are -1 in this stretch and the game is tied at 72 after three quarters.

Fourth quarter
- Rambis sticks with Sessions to start the fourth. He scores four points, grabs two rebounds and dishes out an assist over the 4:58 of the quarter. He goes to the bench and doesn't play again. The Timberwolves lead by 1 when Sessions leaves the game. However, Rondo is not in the game at this point.
- That means Flynn enters the game with 7:02 left and plays the rest of the way. He enters the game at virtually the same time that Rondo checks in. Flynn doesn't take a shot over the final 7:02 and dishes out one assist. During this time, the Wolves are -3. In addition, they have their most difficult stretch of getting good looks at the basket. Down the stretch, Minnesota gets about two easy looks. Everything else is tightly contested.

In terms of plus-minus, Flynn is -10 after halftime while Sessions is even. Flynn doesn't score a point and takes only one shot in 16:02 of action while Sessions scores four points in just under eight minutes. Some of this is apples and oranges as Flynn and Rondo were on the court together almost the entire time while Sessions and Rondo guarded each other for only about a minute. Is that a factor? I think it is. Rondo, for the record, scored 16 points after halftime.

I love Jonny Flynn. I love how hard he plays, love his smile and energy and love that he wants to be in Minneapolis. But taking only one shot and getting only one assist after halftime doesn't cut it for me. That said, the only way Flynn is going to get experience and get comfortable is to get minutes and play when the game is on the line. I'm guessing that Flynn learned something from Wednesday night's loss. At the same time, if one of the goals is to establish a culture of winning and show improvement, maybe Sessions needs to play more and play at more important junctures of the game.

That, in a roundabout way, brings me to tonight's game against Milwaukee. This is a game that I think the Wolves can win and maybe should win, especially with Michael Redd being out because of a strained tendon in his left knee. My question is how the Wolves two point guards are going to react. I fear that Flynn is going to try to do too much in his first regular season matchup against Brandon Jennings. I fear the same thing about Sessions as he plays his old team for the first time. The Bucks didn't match the Wolves offer for him over the summer and basically drafted over him by taking Jennings.

Watching point guard play and minutes at that position develop will be interesting. There is certainly a case to be made that Flynn get the ball as much as possible and make Sessions a backup. But it can also be argued that Sessions needs to play more. We'll see what happens moving forward.


Thursday, November 5, 2009

That wasn't what I expected (both in terms of outcome and who was making jumpers)

As I posted yesterday, my expectations for the Wolves last night against Boston were low. OK, they were barely off the floor low. I had some things that I needed to get done after work last night, so I got home about 8:30 and started watching the game on my DVR.

I expected to watch until it got out of hand and I was willing to just shut it off at some point. Well, that never really happened. I totally get that the Celtics were in the second half of a back-to-back and that the Wolves were a little rested. But I still didn't expect Minnesota to lead by double digits at a couple of points and give Boston all they wanted.

There's much that can be talked about from this one -- Pecherov finishing with a career high, the Brewer "jump ball" at the end of the game, the fact that KG is still a loud-mouthed punk, that Rajon Rondo was the best player on the floor when Boston closed the gap in the third quarter and more -- but I have one major takeaway from this game.

That is that Big Al was ventured outside of what Jim Petersen likes to call "the painted area." I'm not sure if he needed some sort of visa or needed to renew his passport, but we saw Big Al in some very different spots on the floor. He made three jumpers in the 19-20 foot range, one in each of the first three quarters. He took three more in that same range (excluding the shot at the buzzer). 

This to me was clearly the biggest positive moving forward. Because while the loss seemed inevitable (which it was), I am interested to see if Al continues to take and make shots from outside of 15 feet. If it happens, he is going to have an easier time getting to the basket. There was one play when Al caught the ball on the wing about 12-14 feet from the basket. He pump faked, Kendrick Perkins bit and cruised past him for a layup or dunk. If Al hadn't made a couple of longer jumpers, there is no way that Perkins falls for the pump fake. He holds his position and the ball quite possibly gets rotated out. 

While Al has struggled with his health, we're starting to see (at least I think) more of what will be the real Al. He has averaged 35 mpg over the past three games and averaged 21 ppg in that span. He has also shot the ball a little better from the floor.

What will happen from here? That's difficult to tell. Friday night's home game against Milwaukee is very winnable and pretty crucial in my mind. But if Al can continue to make a few jumpers per game, both he and the Timberwolves are going to be better. 

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Two road losses and a game that doesn't matter to me

So we are about two hours away from a Timberwolves game that doesn't matter to me one bit. 

There are people -- especially those in the Wolves marketing department -- who think that the Boston Celtics' only appearance of the season at Target Center is a big deal. I am not one of those people.

Why? First, I don't heart KG. Second, I truly don't care what happens tonight. And I don't think anyone should. The Celtics are in a far different stratosphere than the Timberwolves right now. They are shooting for 60 wins and a title. Aspirations here are quite different. I'd take 25 victories from the Wolves and run. I'd jump for joy for a 30-win season. The Wolves are young and inexperienced. The Celtics, well, aren't.

I expect that the Wolves will get dominated tonight. I think it will be much like last Friday night's game against Cleveland. I don't think it will be close. I don't think there will be a miracle. And I don't expect there to be anything of the sort. Now would I be thrilled if the Wolves made a game of this like OKC did last night against the Lakers? Certainly.

But I am more concerned about seeing improvement and seeing the Wolves win games that they could and/or should win. That's part of why the Phoenix-Clippers back-to-back was kind of disappointing. While I know that the Wolves best player still isn't 100 percent and their second-best player has a broken hand, I think they should have been able to win one of those two games. 

Phoenix has been one of the biggest surprises of the first week of the season to me. They are doing a nice job spreading the court and Channing Frye is a difficult matchup because of his ability to play on the perimeter. When he's out of the paint, that means teams either have to play off of him or Amare is left with more room to move inside. That is called damned if do, damned if don't. And then Nash is a total pick-and-roll freak with great vision. Like usual, Phoenix will struggle to defend teams that are bigger and stronger inside, but the boys in orange can run and score almost at will.

The best part of the loss to the Suns was the biggest letdown against the Clippers. Big Al was great -- especially early -- against Phoenix. He played big in the post, he wanted the ball, he looked like the Al of January 2009. He did almost anything he wanted.

While he scored 24 points a night later against the Clippers, he only grabbed four rebounds and Chris Kaman got 25 and 11. I know Kaman is better than most people know, but if Big Al is truly an elite big guy, he can't get outplayed by that guy. It just shouldn't happen.

Also, the Wolves shouldn't be outscored in three of four quarters by the Clippers. 

What does all of this mean? It means the Wolves will be 1-4 by the end of the night and Friday night's game against the Bucks is big. More about that later, but right now, I'm going to go watch a game that I don't really care about.  Because the Wolves have zero chance to win.


Sunday, November 1, 2009

The Wolves Week: Can they win two?

As I type this, the Wolves are about 15 minutes away from tipping off Game 3 of the season at Phoenix. Most of the time, a NBA week is considered to be a Monday-Sunday proposition. Tonight, I'm going to cheat a little bit and have this be a Sunday-Sunday proposition.

That means the Wolves will play five times between tonight and next Sunday night at Portland. There is tonight's game at Phoenix, tomorrow night at the Clip Joint, Wednesday night at home against KG and the team in Green, Friday against Milwaukee and next Sunday at Portland.

Here is what I would like to see: Two victories. And I don't think that is unrealistic, despite the fact that three games are on the road and one of the home games is basically unwinnable.

This is a very different season than a year ago. I acknowledge that. New GM. New Coach. A ton of new players. An actual point guard. And on and on.

That said, I want this team to prove early in the season that things are different. A year ago, the Wolves beat Sacto in the season opener. And then lost eight in a row. It was the beginning of a 4-24 start to the season. It got Randy Wittman fired, but it also made the team largely irrelevant in the Twin Cities. Yes, there was a nice run in January, but the hole was very deep.

Hence, a two-win week would go a long way toward washing away the fear of another brutal start. I don't have outrageous expectations of this team. I know the Wolves won't be going to the playoffs. I know 25 victories would be a good season and 30 wins would be amazing.

Can they get two? I don't think it's impossible.

Tonight at Phoenix: The Suns aren't what they are were. They aren't an elite team and they aren't an automatic playoff team. But they aren't bad. Jason Richardson is back from suspension and Channing Frye has been an interesting addition. When the Wolves won in Phoenix last January, I thought it was one of their best outings of the season. This Suns team is better, but so are the Wolves.

Monday at Clippers: If the Wolves lose at Phoenix, this becomes a very important game. The Clippers are the Clippers (as seen by the fact that Blake Griffin couldn't even make it to the season opener before getting hurt), but they are better. They still have Baron Davis, Eric Gordon and Marcus Camby. Those are three pretty good players. They no longer have knucklehead Zach Randolph and I think that's a good thing. And I'm guessing the Rhino is going to want to play well against his former teammates. I'd like to think the Wolves can win this game, but it does scare me a little bit.

Wednesday vs. Celtics: Not much to say here. I expect this to be a lot like Friday against the Cavs. The Wolves might play hard. They might do some good things. But I expect them to get their asses kicked.

Friday vs. Bucks: This might be the most important game of the week for the Wolves. The Bucks are not significantly better than the Wolves, especially now that Charlie V and Richard Jefferson are gone. Hakim Warrick was a nice pickup and I think that Brandon Jennings will be good, but I do think the Wolves can win this game. This game is also important to me because I would like to see the Wolves make a step this year. To me, that is being able to beat most teams that are equal or a little better at home. A win here would go a long way toward showing that.

Sunday at Portland: There is no non-Wolves team in the NBA that I enjoy watching more than Portland. I love the depth and potential there. I am in the camp that says Greg Oden is going to be a great player. I still hate the Roy-for-Foye trade and think the Wolves would be a very different franchise if that move isn't made. LaMarcus Aldridge is wonderful. I can't believe Steve Blake is as effective as he is. There's the Fake Thug. I could keep going. I do wonder how they are going to keep everybody happy -- especially with Andre Miller there now. While this team might not make as big of a leap forward as some think, this is still a playoff team that plays well at home. I'll be very surprised if the Wolves can win here. If they do, it will be because they played very well.

Summary: Two wins -- including a home win against the Bucks -- would be a big step. I think it can happen. Worst case scenario is that the Wolves win one and hang very close in a couple others. A winless week? That would be a disaster.

Back at it

New season and a new resolution to blog. I'm hopeful that I can gain some good momentum and keep it through 80 more games.

As this Timberwolves season is in its infant stages, I am intrigued. I wasn't initially thrilled with the hiring of David Kahn as Wolves GM, but as he got to work -- and reworked the lineup in the process -- I became more excited.

The good:

- I love Jonny Flynn. I think he is going to be very, very good. I like that he plays his ass off. I like that he is cool with being in Minneapolis. I like the big smile.

- I like getting rid of Randy Foye. I did like Randy Foye when he was a Wolf, but I never saw him really fitting in here. He can't play the point. He has a hard time guarding the better 2s in the league. He's a much better fit in DC where he can come off of the bench and not have the responsibilities of playing 30-plus minutes. I hope he plays well for Flip -- and he has so far -- but he wasn't going to help the Wolves in the long term.

- Rambis. I like the hire. I like a guy who was worked for a winner. I like that he's not a screamer who guys will turn out. I like that he's pretty chill, but with a mean streak. And somewhere deep inside of me, I like that he knocked McHale on his ass back in the day.

The bad:

- Loved the Rubio pick at the beginning, but I don't think he will ever play for the Wolves. Obviously he could be a nice piece to deal, but he was the one guy I was most excited about in this draft class. This certainly isn't the biggest deal breaker, but kind of a bummer.

- This team needs some luck in the health department. Love is out for at least a month. Al is limited now. It would be wonderful for things to get better from here. The Wolves clearly need a season of better-than-average health if for no other reason than to see what they've got. Can Corey Brewer be a player in this league? How will Al and KLove play together?

- The biggest bummer is that this team is still going to lose a lot of games. And I mean A LOT of games. If the loss total is less than 55, it will be a really good season for the Wolves.