Tuesday, February 17, 2009

What can be expected now? What are reasonable expectations?

I do hate when real work and real life gets in the way of this blogging pursuit. I'm hoping life is somewhat back to normal now. No guarantees, but there is hope.

The Wolves are about 15 minutes from beginning the post-All Star Game portion of the schedule and, in some ways, the post-Al portion of the season. Yes, there was the game against Toronto before the break, but I think that was a sort of what-is-this-really-like 48 minutes.

As things stand, the Wolves are 17-34 with 31 games left to be played. That is the known part of the equation. For me, the unknown is what really can be expected as the Wolves maneuver through the final two months of the regular season.

When the Wolves were playing well in January, I thought this team could recover from 4-23 start to the season and get to the 30-win mark. I thought that even 35 wins would be possible. But now? I really have no idea what to expect.

Of the final 31 games this season, 20 are against teams that are in or close to being in the playoffs. For the sake of this argument, that group includes 10 teams from the East and nine from the West. That leaves 11 games against non-playoff variety teams. There two against the Wiz, two against an improving Golden State team and one each against Indiana, Memphis, the Knicks, Charlotte, Oklahoma City, the Clippers and the season finale against crappy Sacto.

How many of these games will the Wolves be favored in? Clearly that depends on health and whether they can get anything going the the short term without Big Al.

How many will they win? Realistically, this has the potential to be a long couple of months. With Al and Corey Brewer out, the Wolves are without two of their top seven from the beginning of the season. Throw in Mike Miller not being in a groove and there might not be more than a couple of nights the rest of the way where you look at the lineups and say, 'Yeah, the Wolves should win this.'

This is a total guess, but I'm going to go with 8-23 the rest of the way. That would give the Wolves 25 wins for the season. That would actually be better than six years in Wolves history, but also a small improvement over a year ago.

This morning, Jerry Zgoda did a nice job looking at the post Al era in the Star Tribune.

He talks Lottery positioning, the development of Kevin Love, whether Randy Foye will able to assume more of the scoring load. In other words, all of the usual topics. My feelings aren't all that different than Jerry's to be honest.

My wish list:
1. Play someone at center other than Kevin Love at least part of the time.

My fear is that McHale will simply move KLove into Big Al's spot and play the Rhino at power forward. I get the strategy behind that. But I don't want to see KLove having to guard centers on a regular basis and get dominated on the defensive end of the floor. Even if it costs the team some wins, I'd rather see Mad-Dog or Booth play some minutes at center. I'm not sure we're going to see that, however. I think we'll see Love at center, Rhino at the four and Cardinal rotating in for one of the two.

2. Randy Foye should never play PG.

I've been on this before, but I want to see McHale keep Foye at the 2 at all costs. I understand a few minutes here and there until Kevin Ollie comes back, but Foye needs to prove he can be an effective shooting guard. Or at least he should get the chance to see if he is an effective shooting guard. Foye is going to see different defenses and more attention than he has ever gotten now that one of the best low-post scorers in the league is on the shelf. So how will Randy react?

3. The departure of somebody

If they can get something for Mike Miller, make the deal. If they can three used balls and pair of old sneakers for McCants, make the deal.

4. I suppose more losses.

This is the hardest part of the Big Al injury for me. For too long over the past two years, the Wolves have been a total afterthought in the Twin Cities sports market. The past two months have been fun. There has been a buzz about the team, the Wolves have come up in regular conversation, there have been signs of life. When they had most of their pieces, it was easy to pull for this team to win games even if the playoffs were an unattainable goal. Now, they need to lose. They need good odds in the lottery.

5. Some resolution about McHale's future

I dislike the guy as a GM, but I like him as a coach. I like how he tries to instill confidence and doesn't scream like a mad man. I especially like that he doesn't stomp his feet like the last guy. But I also don't like the uncertainty. Either commit to the job or move along. I'd like him to stay because I think he does a nice job. And some stability might not be a bad thing.

That's it for now. Time to go watch the rest of this thing unfold.

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